Forex news for North American trading on November 11, 2021
- Mixed results for the major indices today
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $81.59
- Bank of Mexico raise rates by 25 basis points to 5.0%
- SNB Maechler: Inflation has remained modest in Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs sees UK growth outperforming and China lagging next year
- Gold is heating up, aiming for $2600 next year?
- European indices ending the session mostly higher
- We remember
- Major indices mixed with the Dow industrial average feeling the pressure from Disney
- OPEC forecasts give it more cover for slow return of barrels
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar runs with post-CPI gains
- The GBP is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as NA trading begins
The North American session was slowed a bit due to the Veterans Day holiday in the US and in Canada Remembrance Day. The Canadian markets were closed. In the US, the stock indices were open but the US government bond market was closed. Coming off a day when yields moved up by double-digits yesterday as a result of the higher-than-expected CPI, it may have helped the stocks rebound a bit.
Although the Dow 30 was lower by -158 points, much of the decline can be attributed to Disney shares which felt -7.11% after worse than expected earnings and subscriber numbers to Disney+. The S&P index and Nasdaq indices both snapped two day declines with the NASDAQ outperforming. The S&P rose 0.06%. The NASDAQ index rose 0.52%. The Russell 2000 out performed all of the indices with a gain of 0.82% on the day.
The US dollar moved higher yesterday on the back of the higher yields (and expectations for the Fed to tighten sooner than expected). Although the debt market was closed today, the dollar continued its push to the upside. The greenback was the strongest of the major currencies for the second consecutive day. The weakest that currency was the CAD followed by the NZDUSD.
The Mexico central bank raise rates by 0.25% as expected. However there was one dissenter who wanted to keep rates unchanged. That was in contrast with analysts who were debating 25 basis point or 50 basis points. As a result the USDMXN moved marginally higher (lower MXN) on the news, and in the process reversed the days declines.
Below is a snapshot of the strongest to weakest of the major currency pairs going into the end of day.
Looking at some of the major currencies from a technical perspective:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD made a new 2021 low (and trade at the lowest level since July 2020) and in the process moved away from its 50% midpoint of the range since the 2020 low. That midpoint comes in at 1.14892. The high price today reach 1.14869 just a few pips below that midpoint level (sellers leaned). In the new trading day, the next target comes in at 1.1424. What would hurt the bearish bias? A move back above the 50% retracement level followed by a run above 1.1523.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD also reached a new low for 2021 and trade at the lowest level since December 2020. The price moved further away from the end of September swing low at 1.3411. That level is now the risk defining level for shorts. Stay below is more bearish. On the downside, a downward sloping trendline cuts across at 1.3318. A swing level going back to November and December 2020 comes in at 1.33117.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY chopped up and down in a narrow 35 pip trading range (the average is 65 pips over the last month). Despite trading above the 114.00 level on a number of days over the last few weeks, the pair is closing above the 114.00 level for the first time since October 26. The next upside target's come in at 114.20 to 114.30. The high from last week reached 114.457.
- NZDUSD: The NZDUSD moved lower in the Asian and into the London morning session. That took the price below the 100 day moving average but momentum could not be sustained. The price nevertheless was able to waffle above and below the key 100 day moving average at 0.7022 for most of the New York session (the high reached 0.7037 while the low extended to 0.7005). The pair is currently trading just below the 200 day moving average at 0.7021 going into the close. In the new trading day that moving average will be the barometer for the buyers and sellers. Move above and we could see some upside probing. If the price can stay below, the sellers remain in firm control and the market price moves lower.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD move below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the September 29 low at 0.7316 and pretty much stay below that retracement level for the rest of the trading day. The pair is trading near it's low for the day at 0.7287 which corresponds with a swing low going lower back to October 8 near the same level. Move below it, and there should be more downside probing as the trend lower continues. Find support against that and traders will start to look toward the broken 61.8% level at 0.7316.
In other markets as the day comes to a close:
- Spot gold rose for the sixth consecutive day. The price is currently trading up $13.26 or 0.72% at $1862. The price is up 5.62% from the recent low reached on November 3
- Spot silver is up $0.62 or 2.55% a $25.23. It is up five the last six trading days, and 9.6% from the November 3 low
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.17 or -0.21% at $81.17. The price has come off since settling at $81.59 at 2:30 PM ET.
- Bitcoin is trading up about $100 at $65,004. The digital currency reaches highs $69,000 in trading yesterday before coming off. The low price today reached $64,140
