Forex news for January 12, 2015
- Crude oil futures fall below $30 for first time since December 2003
- JOLTS US Nov job openings 5431K vs 5450K exp
- IBD-TIPP Jan US economic optimism 47.3 vs 47.5 exp
- Canada's Morneau won't predict where CAD will go to
- Feds Lacker: Second verse, same as the 1st. Lacker repeats speech from Jan 8th
- US stocks end an up and down day higher
- Fed's Lacker: Fed likely to need at least 4 rate hikes in 2016
- Oil bounce looks far from convincing
- Talk of a big bid dropped into Feb WTI - Livesquawk
- Brexit fears? You ain't seen nothing yet
- Gundlach says technicals call for short-term bottom in oil today
- EIA sees US oil production falling more than expected in 2016
- European stocks close up (that's not a typo)
- There's a reason we watch the tech levels
- BOE Carney says household debt is an indirect risk to economy
- JOLTS US Nov job openings 5431K vs 5450K exp
- NIESR UK Dec GDP estimate +0.6%
- ECB's Weidman: Loose monetary policy has unintended side effects
- China's foreign exchange regulator asks banks to limit Yuan outflows
- IMF Lagarde: US Fed policy normalization should be gradual
- Hedge funds had a terrible time of it in 2015
Most of the eyes today were on the price of oil and stocks once again. The price of oil dipped below the $30 a barrel level for the WTI Crude oil contract. This was the first dip below that level since December 2003. The pair traded as low at $29.93. How did USDCAD trade? The pair did reach a new peak going back to April 2003 at 1.4314, but could not extend gains on the dip below the $30 level. It is ending the day at 1.4265.
The "other eye" was on stocks. They S&P opened higher traded as high as 1962.27, but gave up all the gains - traded down to 1901.10, before rebounding into the close finishing at 1921.64.
The big mover today was the GBPUSD. This currency pair (and all the GBP pairs for that matter) was under pressure and trending lower after lower than expected industrial and manufacturing production data in the European morning session. There was a reprieve in the NY session after falling to within 6 or so pips of the June 2010 swing low at 1.4345 (low reached 1.4351). The pair rebounded nearly 100 pips from the low (closing near 1.4447) but is still ending the day down about 100 pips on the day.
The EURUSD trading range today was a fairly tame 81 pips (the average over the last month or so is 102 pips). The NY session range was about 57 pips. The came in at 1.0819 - actually there was a double bottom. The second low came in precisely at the 4 pm London fixing time (HMMMM. Seems like the dealers wanted to have a low fixing). The pair squeezed higher - bouncing to a session high of 1.0876. That level corresponded with the 38.2% of the move down this week.
The USDJPY bottomed yesterday. Today saw the price waffle back and forth in about a 90 pip trading range. The pair did open the NY session above the 100 hour MA at the 117.78 level. but failed on that break. The subsequent fall traded at the session lows when the stocks were at the lows (at 117.37). A move above the 100 hour MA at the 117.78 will be a level to eye in the new trading session.
The AUDUSD was little changed. The NZDUSD was down on the day but remained above the lows from yesterday. The Australian employment report will be released tomorrow evening (US time). The last two monthly releases showed job gains of 71.4K and 56.1 respectively. This month the expectations are for a decline of -12.5K. The market may be impacted by traders positioning for that release.
Eyes overnight will also be on the Asian pacific stock markets. Starbuck CEO announced today that they were opening up 500 new stores a year for the next 5 years. He was on CNBC talking positively on the Chinese economy. If the market start to believe, perhaps the price of commodities and stocks might be able find a bottom.
