Forex news for NY trading on October 16, 2018
- FT report that Barnier open to possibility of a 1-year extension of Brexit transition
- Stocks surge. Gains of over 2% across the board.
- Trump: My biggest threat is the Fed
- Bitfinex continues its quest for a bank account; reportedly finds one in Hong Kong
- Fed's Powell: Worried about the spillover from hard Brexit
- US crude oil futures settle at $71.92
- Khashoggi was beaten and drugged before he was killed (and there are recordings)
- This is a bad sign for the US housing market
- The flipside of Tether is the Gemini dollar
- Britain given offer to remain in EU beyond Dec 2020 - report
- Europeans are the world champions of shifting deadlines
- Ireland issues might be better in a separate agreement rather than Brexit doc
- December EU Brexit summit will leave a tight timeline
- Goldman ups GDP tracker to 3.6% from 3.5%
- Fonterra New Zealand GDT auction -0.3%
- US October NAHB housing market index 68 vs 66 expected
- US August JOLTS job openings 7136K vs 6900K expected
- NAFTA: Senate won't vote on new deal this year
- Turkish police find evidence Khashoggi was killed in Saudi consulate
- EU's Tusk: No grounds for optimism on Brexit before summit
- US September industrial production +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
- May spokesman: There are sticking points in 2 areas
- The GBP is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest at the start of the NA session
In other markets as the day moves toward the close:
- Spot gold is down -$3.30 or -0.27% at $1224
- WTI crude oil rose $0.07 or +0.10% at $71.86
- Bitcoin is trading up $60 at $6450 in an up and down session.
The forex market today was filled of more ups and downs vs trends. At the start of the North American session, the GBP was the strongest currency.
The GBP rose on the back of better wage data. In the NA session, the Brexit concerns weighed more on the currency and it moved off it's high levels. It was replaced by the NZD and CAD. The NZD was boosted higher today after better than expected inflation data at the very start of the day.
The weakest currency at the start of the session was the JPY and got even weaker as stocks surged and that helped to push JPY pairs lower (flight out of the safety of the JPY).
Below is a snapshot of the rankings of the major currencies vs each other. The USD was mixed losses vs the risk currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) and the GBP. It was higher vs the JPY and CHF and unchanged on the day vs. the EUR.
Stocks were a bit of an influence on the markets today. The final numbers in both Europe and the US were quite impressive. Only the UK FTSE had gains less than 1% (0.43% but still closing near the highs). The other major indices not only closed higher by at least 1.10%, but also closed near the highs for the trading day.
For the US markets, the S&P index was the laggard at +2.15%. The Dow rose 2.17% and the Nasdaq surged by 2.89%. Big gains. Below is the summary of the ranges and changes (PS Europe shares may have some catch up in early trading tomorrow).
Catalysts for the higher stocks are earnings which continued to show strength, and a US JOLTs number which showed new records for job openings.
With demand for jobs surging, you might think that would lead to inflation fears. Last week, rates were a concern, and helped to push stocks lower. This week, the market sent stocks surging and yields were little changed (+/- a basis point or so).
The earnings surprises continued in after hour trading with Netflix beating estimates on subscribers and EPS (revenues came in as expected). It's stock is up to $386 in after hours trading after closing at $346.
Some technical levels in some of the major pairs:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD tested and held against the 100 hour MA on the dips today. That MA comes in at 1.15708. A move below will tilt the bias to more bearish in the new day.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is closing near its 100 hour MA at 1.3183. The 1.3180-85 is also home to swing levels from last week's trading. That area will be the barometer for bulls and bears. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.
