Forex news for North American trading on September 16, 2021

In the US session, the economic data surprised to the upside with retail sales coming in at 0.7% vs expectations of -0.8%. The ex-orders came in at +1.8% versus -0.1% expected. The control group was much stronger at 2.5% versus -0.1% estimate. Yes there were some revisions lower from the prior month, but overall the data was stronger than expectations.

At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing index for September came in better than expected 30.7 versus 18.8. Coupled with the better than expected Empire manufacturing yesterday suggests a pickup in activity. Of course supply constraints and other post Covid headwinds remain an issue. The Christmas season should be interesting with warnings of supply issues, and the threat of higher prices. There are still a lot of uncertainties in the economy and with that central bank policy. The FOMC will announce their interest rate decision next Wednesday.

The better data sent the dollar higher today along with interest rates. The US dollar is ending the session as the strongest of the major currencies with the largest gain verse the CHF at 0.79%. All the other major currencies rose by a minimum of 0.33% to 0.57%

Forex news for North American trading on September 16, 2021_

In the US debt market today, the yields across the maturity spectrum are all higher with the yield curve steepening. The two – 10 year spread is trading near 112 basis points versus 109 basis points near the close of trading yesterday.

The US rates are higher

The US stock market had what has become its standard type of day. Dow and the S&P opened higher with the NASDAQ down modestly. However sellers entered within the first hour and started to push the indices to the downside.

At the session lows, the Dow Jones was down -0.79%. The S&P index was down -0.84% and the NASDAQ index was down -0.75%. However at the close the major indices had recovered most of the declines with the NASDAQ index closing higher on the day.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average down -63.07 points or -0.18% at 34751.32. At the low the index was down -274.28 points
  • The S&P index is closing down -7.33 points or -0.16% at 4473.37. At its session low the index was down -37.68 points
  • The NASDAQ index rose 20.4 points or 0.13% at 15181.90. At its low the index fell -114.4 points or -0.75%.
  • The Russell 2000 index up small-cap stocks fell a modest -1.54 points or -0.07% at 2232.91.

In some of the other markets:

  • Spot gold tumbled $-40.57 or -2.26% to $1753.43
  • Spot silver the is trading down $0.90 or -3.8% at $22.92
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading near unchanged at $72.60 after falling two as low as $71.53 intraday
  • the price of bitcoin is down $673 at $47,477

A look at some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective shows:

  • USDJPY: The USDJPY held support against the lows from August 16 and 17th yesterday at 109.11. Today the Asian session low could only get down to 109.20 before rotating to the upside. The retail sales and Philadelphia Fed index push the price even higher with the pair breaking above its 100 hour moving average at 109.715 but stalling against its 100 day moving average at 109.833. The move off the 100 day moving average push the price back below the 100 hour moving average but held support against a swing area between 109.56 and 109.615. That level will be close support. Stay above and the buyers are in more control. Having said that, the pair still needs to get above its 100 hour moving average at 109.715 and then the 100 day moving average at 109.833 and the 200 hour moving average at 109.863 to give the buyers more confidence and increase the anxiety of the sellers.
  • EURUSD: The EURUSD was trading sharply lower in the London morning session. The data helped to push the euro even lower/the dollar higher. The pair bottom near 1.1750 after closing yesterday at 1.1815. The pair after bottoming did cracked higher trading up toward the swing low going back to Monday's trade near 1.1770. That is where the price is currently trading heading into the close for the day. If the buyers are to take more control, getting above that level and then the 50% midpoint of the range since August 20 at 1.17859 would be the next upside target's. Above that and traders will look toward the 100 hour moving average at 1.18025.
  • GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved sharply lower and in the process fell below the low price is from earlier this week between 1.37965 and 1.3792. The low price extended to 1.37638 before rebounding in the New York afternoon session. The corrective high price reached up toward the top of a swing area at 1.3802 and found sellers against that level. The current price is trading just below it at 1.3797. In the new trading day, getting above 1.3802 would give the buyers some confidence on the failure below the swing area between 1.3790 and 1.3802. Above, however, sits the 200 hour moving average at 1.38198, the 200 day moving average at 1.3828, and the 100 moving average at the same 1.3828 level.
  • USDCAD: The USDCAD in the Asian session found support against a lower trendline at 1.2614. The better data sent the price above both the 200 hour moving average and the 100 hour moving average. The 100 hour moving average currently is at 1.26618 and will be a support level in the new trading day. The run to the upside did stall within the highs for the week between 1.26938 and 1.27078 (Monday and Wednesday highs). The high price today reached 1.26986 and rotated back to the downside in New York afternoon trading. The low price over the last five hours bottomed at 1.2666. That was just above the 100 hour moving average at 1.26618. If the buyers can get above the highs for the week at 1.26938 and 1.27078, it would open the door for further upside momentum in the new trading day.
  • USDCHF. The USDCHF i ending the day trading at session highs near 0.9274. That is right near the July 2 price at the same level. A move above it will have the pair trading at the highest level since early April. That will be the story in the new day get above 0.9274 and the buyers are more control. Stay below or fail on a break above, and we could see a rotation back to the downside.