Forex news for New York trade on Nov 22, 2017:
- FOMC minutes: Many saw 'near-term' hike as warranted but 'a few' opposed
- October US durable goods orders -1.2% vs +0.3% expected
- US initial jobless claims for the current week 239K vs. 240K estimate
- Jamie Dimon calls for negative income tax for low-income earners
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 747 vs 738 prior
- Qatar oil minister says OPEC needs more time to reduce inventories
- US weekly oil inventories -1855K vs -2200K expected
- U Mich final consumer sentiment 98.5 vs 98.0 expected
- Nov advance eurozone consumer confidence +0.1 vs -0.8 expected
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4: 3.4%
- UK Autumn Budget: OBR forecast inflation to peak in Q4 2017
- UK Autumn Budget: UK will be prepared for every possible Brexit outcome
- US MBA mortgage applications w-e 17 Nov 0.1% vs 3.1% prev
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 2 points to 2597
- US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 2.32%
- Gold up $11 to $1291
- WTI crude up $1.17 to $58.01
- JPY leads, USD lags
Plenty of people rolled in on Wednesday expecting a quiet wind-down toward a long weekend. Not much has happened in markets this week and there was no reason to expect a big move. But the market had other ideas and it was a slow-burn on selling the US dollar that turned into a rout after the FOMC minutes.
USD/JPY was near 112.00 as trading got under way in New York. There was a big focus on support near 111.70. Clustered around was the 100/200-dma and the Oct low. It gave way early in the day as stops were hit near 111.80. It flattened out from there until the FOMC minutes hinted at a push to wait-and-see on US inflation after the Dec hike. That sparked a second wave of selling to as low as 111.14 and a big break on the chart.
EUR/USD slowly climbed to 1.1825 from 1.1740 and that's the best close in a month. The two-part climb followed the same narrative as USD/JPY as offers at 1.1800 restrained the first leg. With the gain, there's a nice three-day reversal pattern on the chart but the Nov 15 high of 1.1861 still looms.
Cable initially slumped on the budget and the lower OBR growth and productivity estimates but it quickly recuperated the 35-pip drop the started into its seventh consecutive day of gains. The rise gained momentum after taking out Monday's high of 1.3279 and then ripped to 1.3323 after the FOMC minutes.
USD/CAD was also helped by a rally in oil that came despite a surprisingly bearish EIA inventory report. The pair fell to a nine-day low just below 1.27 after climbing above 1.2825 yesterday.
AUD/USD gained for the second day, adding another half-cent to 0.7620as the bounce from the late-June low continues. The October low of 0.7625 is one to watch.
Safe travels to all our American readers, including Greg who is off for the rest of the week.
