Forex news for North American trading on August 23, 2017.
- US stocks can't get out of the red today. Modest declines.
- USD/CAD sinks to session lows late. What's next
- McConnell says he and Trump committed to advancing shared agenda
- ECB's Hansson: Euro's gains so far are not 'a big change'
- Trump: It's time to heal, together we will not fail
- Crude oil futures are settling at $48.41
- Fed's Kaplan: Technology is restraining inflation
- R-E-S-P-E-C-T. You have to respect the breaks in the EURGBP
- Brexit Round 3 showdown is weighing on GBP; What's next? - BTMU
- It's an ugly day in the carry trade barometer
- European major indices lower on the day
- Canada says it will shrug off threats from Trump on NAFTA
- Euro climb makes the ECB more likely to extend asset buys - report
- EIA US crude oil inventories -3327K vs -3479K expected
- July US new home sales 571K vs 610K expected
- August advance Eurozone consumer confidence -1.5 vs -1.8 expected
- Markit US August prelim manufacturing PMI 52.5 vs 53.5 expected
- Markit US PMIs coming up next
- ECB's Weidmann: Wants orderly and quick exit from asset buys
- Expectations for Jackson Hole are low
- The JPY is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter
- US MBA's mortgage applications index fell 0.5% in the last week
A snapshot of other markets at the end of the NY session shows:
- Spot gold +$5.29 to $1290.31. The $1300 level looms above
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.54 or 1.17% to $48.39. Crude oil inventories showed a -3300K draw down of inventories
- US yields fell. 2 year 1.305%, -1.6 bp. 5 year 1.743%, - 4 bp. 10 year 2.1677%, -4.5 bp. 30 year 2.746%, -3.7 bp
- US stocks ended the day with modest losses. The S&P fell by -0.35%. The Nasdaq fell by -0.30% and the Dow lost -0.40%. Below is a summary of the changes for the major European and North American indices.
Overall, it was another quiet economic day in the North American session. The Jackson Hole summit will begin tomorrow but Fed Chair Yellen and ECB Draghi won't speak until Friday (Yellen at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT and ECB Draghi at 3 PM ET/1900 GMT).
From a fundamental perspective today, the US new home sales came in much weaker than expectations at 571K annualized vs 610K estimate. That was good for a -9.4% decline vs last month's 630K annualized rate. You kinda think that it must be a reporting or maybe seasonal problem that will be washed out going forward. Plus new home sales are much smaller than existing home sales. To give you an idea, existing home sales will be released tomorrow and are expected to show a 5.55M annualized sales pace. Much bigger.
In other news the Flash Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected at 52.5 vs 53.5 estimate. However, the service index was better at 56.9 vs 55.0 estimate. The computed composite index was also higher at 56.0 vs 54.6 last month. Overall, not bad for that the flash PMI data..
Pres. Trump followed up his hour and 15 minute "campaign" speech last night with something more normal today. He kept to the script, cut out about 45 minutes of fake news ramble, and seemed to lift spirits (relatively speaking). Nevertheless, he continues to press for funding for "the wall", and threatens a government shut down if the funding is not obtained. His comments had little market impact.
The USD wandered lower in the NY session with the JPY and the EUR gaining the most vs the dollar (-0.54% vs JPY and -0.50% vs the EUR).
The dollar did advance vs the pound. The GBPUSD was lower coming into the NY session and the declines in that pair were maintained throughout the North American session (a little move downs followed by a little move back higher).
The EURGBP helped to keep the GBPUSD pressured. It rallied to the highest level since 2009 (at 0.9235), and in the process also broke above a topside trend line on the 4-hour chart. The pair is breaking out on both the monthly and 4-hour chart. However, as FXL followers point out, the RSIs and MACD are diverging signalling a potential overbought condition and imminent correction. Will the trend continue or will we get the correction in the new day? CLICK HERE to read my thoughts technically. Be sure to read the FXL comments for supplemental information.
The big negative dog for the day vs the greenback was the NZD. However, in the NY session, even the NZDUSD recovered a bit (USD lower). Even still, the pair fell by -0.65% on the day (was -0.73% at the start of the NY session). The NZDUSD traded at the lowest level since June 22nd before the NY session rebound. Technically, at the lows the pair got close to the 50% retracement of the 2017 trading range (at 0.7187). The low reached 0.7196. It is currently trading at 0.7224. The New Zealand trade data will be released in the new trading day with the expectation for -200m deficit vs a 242m surplus last month. Exports are expected to come in at 4.40B with imports at 4.6B (give or take).
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The JPY - with the NZDJPY leading the way - was the biggest mover today (+1.18%). GBBJPY was also a big mover. That pair fell -0.70%.
Good fortune with your trading. For those people in the US, good fortune with the 700 million lottery. If only I got lucky this one time......?