Forex news for US trading on January 6, 2016:
- FOMC Minutes: Almost all officials agreed liftoff conditions met in Dec
- December 2015 US ADP employment report 257k vs 192k exp
- December 2015 US ISM non manufacturing PMI 55.3 vs 56.0 exp
- December 2015 US Markit services PMI final 54.3 vs 54.0 exp
- US Nov factory orders -0.2% vs -0.2% expected
- Fed's Fischer sees 4 rate hikes in his 2016 ballpark view
- White House: Analysis of North Korean nuclear test not consistent with claims
- Atlanta Fed bumps the GDPNow forecast back higher
- US weekly EIA oil inventories -5085K vs +500K expected
- ISM's Nieves says inventories are still too high at this point
- US November trade deficit $42.4B vs $44.0B expected
- Canadian Nov trade balance -$1.99B vs -$2.6B expected
- WTI crude oil down $1.93 to $34.04
- Gold up $16 to $1094
- JPY leads, AUD lags
The terrible start to the year for risk assets continues. Global stocks were kicked around and oil fell nearly 6%.
Naturally, the Canadian dollar was on the defensive and it tumbled to a fresh 12-year low. USD/CAD shot to 1.4109 but the high came early in the day despite the bleed lower in oil.
The US oil inventory report was a tricky one as it showed a very large draw in crude but massive builds in gasoline and distillates. Oil was at $35.10 ahead of the data but sold all the way to $33.86, finishing on the lows.
AUD/USD fell even harder than the loonie and continues to be the worst performer this year. Most of the damage was done in Asia as it fell to 0.7055 but and then bounced to 0.7094 early in US trading before sliding to a fresh low at 0.7049.
AUD/JPY shorts have been an amazing trade to start the year, down 440 pips in three trading days to 83.70. The pair looks to have broken a beautiful neckline on a head and shoulders pattern. There's still a bit of room to run before support at 83.00.
USD/JPY was one place that was relatively tidy. It traded in a 118.25-75 range for the most part. It got a lift from the ADP report to the high end of that range but gave it back late when stocks hit their lows.
Cable sold into the London close as it hit 1.4602 but there wee bids at the big figure and it has bounced back to 1.4630.
Overall, the market is sending signals that it doesn't like all the hawkish talk to the Fed and it's worried about China, emerging market growth and geopolitics. Then again, with just three days of trading in the books, it could be just flows and everyone is overreacting. Tomorrow is a big day.
