Barclays Capital outlines the following 4 global macro-themes for 2016:

Market watchers love to talk about clear ideas but keeping the themes in mind and seeing how they change and develop is the genesis of a great macro trade.

Theme 1: Developed markets will continue to grow steadily, but emerging markets remain weak

-Strong global consumer + trade/investment/manufacturing recession = mediocre but positive growth

Theme 2: Emerging Markets: still not sounding the all-clear

-The China slowdown - accrual accounting, not mark to market

-Broader ramifications - on EM and commodity countries

-Brazil - things should get worse before they get better

-Political dysfunction amid worsening economic and fiscal dynamics

Theme 3: The Fed lift-off cycle should proceed slowly as the Fed tests the limits of divergence

-But volatility regarding the Fed and China should increase as 2016 progresses

Theme 4: Poor liquidity has exacerbated market moves

-This is an ongoing theme that is likely to continue

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