Barclays Capital outlines the following 4 global macro-themes for 2016:
Market watchers love to talk about clear ideas but keeping the themes in mind and seeing how they change and develop is the genesis of a great macro trade.
Theme 1: Developed markets will continue to grow steadily, but emerging markets remain weak
-Strong global consumer + trade/investment/manufacturing recession = mediocre but positive growth
Theme 2: Emerging Markets: still not sounding the all-clear
-The China slowdown - accrual accounting, not mark to market
-Broader ramifications - on EM and commodity countries
-Brazil - things should get worse before they get better
-Political dysfunction amid worsening economic and fiscal dynamics
Theme 3: The Fed lift-off cycle should proceed slowly as the Fed tests the limits of divergence
-But volatility regarding the Fed and China should increase as 2016 progresses
Theme 4: Poor liquidity has exacerbated market moves
-This is an ongoing theme that is likely to continue
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