By Stephen Sandelius

PARIS (MNI) – France’s Socialists should win the lion’s share of
seats in the lower house of Parliament in this month’s elections but
perhaps not the absolute majority that President Francois Hollande would
need in order to implement his campaign program without having to forge
alliances to the left of his party.

With only a relative majority in the National Assembly, Hollande
would have to admit Communists into his cabinet or seek backing on
legislation from deputies on the left wing.

While few candidates are likely to garner the majority of votes
needed for election in the first round this Sunday, the results will
offer a gauge of the relative strength of the competing parties.

Most recent polls suggest that the Socialist Party could win close
to a third of the total votes and its coalition allies another 5-6%. The
center-right coalition previously in power is credited with around 34%.
The Leftist Front could take 7-9% and the right-wing National Front 14%
or more.

The polls also indicate that for most voters the outcome at the
national level has priority over results in individual districts. Most
voters also hope that Hollande will have a supportive majority so as to
avoid the tensions between the executive and parliament that marred
previous periods of “cohabitation” between opposing political camps.

Moreover, Hollande’s popularity remains fairly high – at over 60% –
and his first, largely symbolic, measures have been largely viewed with
favor.

By contrast, the conservative UMP party has been rudderless since
former president Nicolas Sarkozy left the political arena. The advantage
that its incumbent lawmakers might normally enjoy at re-election time
has been tarnished by the negative public opinion of Sarkozy’s record.
As the Left already has a majority in the Senate and in most regions,
the battle cry of the UMP is to stop the Socialists gaining command at
all levels of government.

Prospects for the UMP are further complicated by the fact that, in
contrast to the presidential ballot, the run-offs for the legislative
elections on June 17 can include not only the top two candidates but any
others who manage to take at least 12.5% of the registered electorate.

Given the strong score of the National Front in the presidential
elections last month, its candidates could remain in the running in up
to a third of all districts, if voter turnout is high.

But pollsters expect widespread voter fatigue following the
two-round presidential contest in May, which would lift the hurdle for
reaching the run-offs well above 12.5% of the votes actually cast.
Assuming a turnout of around 60% and a total score of 14% for the
National Front, the polling group Ipsos estimates that FN candidates
could remain in the run-offs for close to 100 seats out of a total of
577.

While the National Front stands to win few if any seats in the
final round, it could draw enough votes away from the UMP in many of
these “triangular” run-offs to assure victory for the candidate on the
Left. The UMP leadership is opposed to an alliance with the National
Front, but some local candidates may be tempted to break ranks to
protect their seats in Parliament.

The Socialist Party agreed early on with the Greens and the Leftist
Radicals to guarantee its junior partners a number of likely victories
in exchange for their support in the run-offs. Although no formal
alliance was reached with the Leftist Front, the Communist members of
the Front have traditionally made their peace with the Socialists in
order to preserve some seats in Parliament. This might also allow them
to be represented in the Cabinet.

In practice, the Socialists and their allies are likely to withdraw
from the run-offs in districts where they are outdistanced by the
Leftist Front in the first round. Ipsos estimates that the Leftist Front
could take 20 or more seats in Parliament.

While the charismatic leader of the Leftist Front, Jean-Luc
Melenchon, who garnered more than 11% in the first round of the
presidential race, has pledged not to side with the conservatives in an
eventual attempt to bring down the Socialist government, he has also
made clear that he aims to influence policy if his party’s votes are
needed to pass legislation.

If the Socialists had to rely on the Leftist Front for an absolute
majority in the Assembly, this “would seriously complicate the task of
Francois Hollande during his mandate,” predicts BVA pollster Gael
Sliman.

“Conversely, since [electors'] wish for a victory of the Left
remains more favorable (55% to 44%) than what we register in their
voting intentions, the Socialist Party can hope for a re-mobilization of
its electorate in the second round,” Sliman said. “This would be the
sole possibility – but it does exist – that would allow it to have an
absolute majority on its own.”

A Socialist government “would still be able to pass its laws even
without an absolute majority of Socialist MPs, but that would be more
complicated and time-consuming,” agreed BNP Paribas economist Dominique
Barbet. “Ultimately, the policy would be more leftist.”

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: ssandelius@marketnews.com

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