A Biden win is priced in but the Senate is becoming less clear
I believe the market has priced in a Biden win and is comfortable with that. He's further ahead in the polls than Hilary Clinton was at any point. The election is still two months away and lots could change so nothing is set in stone.
What's notable right now is that Republicans are getting a bit of a bump, including Trump. The virus has ebbed and that's better news for the President and his party. With that, the betting odds of Republicans holding onto the Senate have improved.
An election night result of a Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate is the one headline that would make me reconsider holding gold. I think we know exactly how that works out because we saw it different versions of it for 6 years under Obama, starting with the House in 2010. It leads to Republicans rediscovering fiscal prudence.
I believe the main tailwind for gold this decade is runaway fiscal spending because that's what voters generally want. If Republicans hold the Senate, that might not be true.
I don't think it's a coincidence that gold has faltered as Republican Senate hopes have improved. Here's the latest change in betting odds:
