Goldman lowers Q4 WTI forecast to $43 from $50
Oversupply risks led Goldman Sachs to cut its oil price forecast on Tuesday.
"Given upside surprises to (third-quarter) production and greater clarity on new project delivery into year-end. This leaves us expecting a global surplus of 400,000 (barrels per day) in (the fourth quarter) versus a 300,000 (barrels per day) draw previously," analysts from Goldman Sachs wrote.
They also highlight the downside risks to their forecast and say oil could fall further if production in Nigeria and Libya rise.
Even an OPEC deal would leave them skeptical.
"While a potential deal could support prices in the short term, we find that the potential for less disruptions and still relatively high net long speculative positioning leave risks skewed to the downside into year-end," Goldman wrote.
Oil is down $1.25 today to $44.70 after Iran torpedoed the idea of an agreement this week.
