Federal Open Market Committee announcement due Wednesday 11 December 2019

GS do say their base case is for the dot plot update to show monetary policy on hold in 2020. But then with a leg each side of the fence.:

  • there could be either a dovish or hawkish surprise

Hawkish if more FOMC participants project one rate hike in 2020 or two hikes in 2022.

Dovish if the median long-run dot declines from September's 2.5% level

  • or participants see higher inflation as a prerequisite for the next rate hike

"Beyond the December meeting, we see a high bar for policy moves in either direction"

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