What took them so long?
In October, Goldman Sachs touched a short-USD dollar trade and warned that a blue wave in the US election could send the Dollar Index to the 2018 lows.
"A 'blue wave' U.S. election and favorable news on the vaccine timeline could return the trade-weighted dollar and DXY index to their 2018 lows," they wrote.
It took until the Georgia runoffs for the blue wave to arrive, but that moment marked the bottom of the US dollar.
They had suggested buying CAD, AUD, NZD, EUR, INR and MXN against the dollar.
On Friday, they declared a 'tactical retreat'.
"Although we still expect these currencies to appreciate versus the dollar over the coming quarters, firm U.S. growth and rising bond yields may keep the greenback supported over the short-term," GS strategists wrote. "After a choppy few months we are closing our recommended dollar short trade."
Overall, they are able to get out of the trade with a win, gaining about 5% but it was all in the turmoil in November/December and generally not for the reasons they expected.
Up next, they're circling the euro and noting that it could turn once a vaccine rollout in the continent is within sight. They see it hitting 1.28 in a year.
