The much awaited meeting between China's President Xi and US counterpart Trump is this weekend at the G20
Goldman Sachs looks at 3 scenarios:
- The first and in our view most likely is continuing on the current path of 'escalation' -- tariff rates rise to 25 percent on all imports currently under tariff, and tariffs are extended to remaining Chinese imports
- second is a "pause" … existing tariffs remain in place but continued talks with escalation on hold
- third, and unlikely in the close term, is a rollback of current tariffs
I've posted on the meeting a few times so far this week, ICYMI:
- Barclays on the Trump - Xi meeting, and beyond
- MS on the Australian dollar (AUD below fair value) and this weekend's Xi - Trump meeting
A factor supporting GS on their #1 scenario is this overnight:
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Whatever the result is, join me on Monday morning for the early opening in Asia, it could be a gappy wild one