Comments from Goldman Sachs' Global Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie following the OPEC meeting on Friday:
Goldman's price targets on oil:
- October, $45/bbl
- End of 2015 target is $50
- Q1 2016 $53
Rationale ... Several influences:
- Thinks we have seen an increase in demand
- "Offsetting that, is we look at U.S. production, it's still a line going straight up, despite the fact we have seen a sharp drop in investment as well as in drilling"
- And .... You look at the low-cost producers in OPEC ... again making large scale investments... production also going straight up."
- The other imbalance in the market is in capital, investment. We have too much capital in this market, and that's really the core of our negative view is to actually rebalance these capital markets"
Currie also referred to the 'fracklog', whereby US frackers have become swing producers, ready to pump more supply if the price rises.
Currie was interviewed on CNBC
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Here is a weekly candle chart - I've stuck in a (very) rough couple of lines indicating a double bottom. Again, very roughly, looks like a 'target' for this around $64 or so. What do the technical analysts think? Comments welcome
This is from our live (not only) FX charts!
