I posted earlier that retail sales and industrial production data from China is coming up on Monday.
Wrong.
Its on the weekend!
Scheduled for 0530GMT on 13 September
August Retail Sales y/y
- expected is up 10.6%, prior was up 10.5%
Retail Sales YTD
- expected is +10.4% y/y and prior was 10.4%
August Industrial Production, y/y
- expected is +6.3%, prior was +6.0%
Industrial Production YTD y/y
- expected is 6.3%, prior was 6.3%
August Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD y/y
- expected is +11.2%, prior was +11.2%
--
Chinese data previews are a bit of a minefield.
Having said that, there do seem to be a number of factors stacking up to make me wary of a downside surprise on industrial production:
- Recent manufacturing PMIs have been terrible
- We had the big parade in Beijing last week, with factory closures leading up to it
- The dreadful explosion in Tianjin led to production slowdowns and closures
An opposing view could be argued given the bounce we've had in some industrial commodities ... iron ore, for example, is up near 10 week highs. M'eh ... I prefer my first 3 bullet points.
Anyway ... we'll find out on Sunday (and start caring a few hours later as Monday kicks off)
