Here's what it'd take for Trump to intervene in the FX market

I posted a good while back on the potential for USD intervention from the US

• What if Trump looks at the climbing USD and tweets he wants a managed exchange rate?

Its a crazy idea but I am not discounting President Trump and what he might do. Anyway, since I posted there have been a few jumping on board with thoughts. This, for example from JPM:

• JPMorgan says Trump may sell dollars as weapon in US trade war

Overnight, a note from Natwest Markets canvassing similar thoughts, this a snippet from a wider ranging note caught my eye:

• exchange rate policy falls under the jurisdiction of the US Treasury NOT The Federal Reserve
• Hence any intervention to weaken the greenback could come from Treasury unilaterally and … we should not rule out such a directive coming from Trump to Mnuchin if he becomes frustrated with continued USD strength

Something to keep an eye on,

and … dare I say it … an open mind about?

---

Oh, I should add, this was ahead of those comments in NW note, puts it into context a little more, and avoids the headline to the post falling into a 'perjury trap' :-D :

• "A rising USD/CNH has caught the attention of the US administration. While Trump appeared to re-affirm a strong USD policy, there have also been reports that US authorities want the RMB back to 6.40-6.50 levels
• ... a USD reversal will need one or more of the following: a shift in relative growth (perhaps related to China policy stimulus); a change in Fed policy; renewed focus on relative equity valuations; realisation that the US's twin deficits are worsening; or significant political uncertainty around the outcome of the mid-term elections."