IMF forecasts released
- 2018 at 3.9% for global growth
- 2019 at 3.9% for global growth
- Risks have shifted further to the downside due to increased likelihood of escalating and sustained trade conflicts
- If tariff threats are realized, global growth could be 0.5 pp below current projections
- US exports especially vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs
- US growth for 2018 unchanged at 2.9% and 2019 unchanged at 2.7%
- China growth for 2018 unchanged at 6.6%
- Growth forecasts slightly lowered for Eurozone, Britain, Japan, Brazil, Mexico and India
- Eurozone 2018 estimate to 2.2% from 2.4%
- Higher forecasts for Middle East and Pakistan, largely on higher oil prices
- Financial markets seem 'broadly complacent' to global risks
Estimates for Mexico and France were both lowered 0.3 pp with no significant upgrades anywhere.
Overall, these forecasts aren't really market movers but they're a nice synopsis of where the global economy is and what people are worried about. There's definitely a feeling that markets are a bit complacent about trade risks but at the same time, a 0.5 pp decline in global growth isn't really that much to be worried about.
