This is the first reading for GDP from Japan, October to December 2016

GDP (seasonally adjusted) q/q: 0.2% ... miss

  • expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%

GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) y/y: 1.0% ... miss

  • expected 1.1%, prior 1.4%, revised from 1.3%

GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) q/q: 0.3% ... miss

  • expected 0.5%, prior 0.2%, revised from 0.1%

GDP Deflator (this is an inflation indicator): -0.1 % ... beat

  • expected -0.2%, prior -0.1%, revised from -0.2%

GDP Consumer Spending q/q, 0.0% .... in line

  • expected 0.0%, prior was 0.3%

GDP Business Spending q/q: 0.9% ... and also a miss

  • expected 1.2%, prior was -0.3%, revised from -0.4%


  • exports expand at fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014
  • external demand contribution to GDP was +0.2%, domestic demand was 0.0%

This was the 4th consecutive quarter of GDP growth. (first time for a run of 4 in three years). While the capex (business investment) missed, it has moved in a better direction than Q3 (Q3 was revised to be slightly less worse). Exports also a contributor.

The data comes from Japan's Cabinet Office, they've also released commentary from Japan economy minister Ishihara:

  • No change to the picture of gradual recovery for Japan
  • Employment and income conditions continue to improve
  • Ned to remain mindful of uncertainty offshore, and also of moves in financial markets

(Ishihara will be referencing yen strength with this comment on 'financial markets' - Japanese authorities will not want to see the yen strengthen from here)