This via Bloomberg over the weekend (note from the bank dated Sep 21) on JPM lagging threats to the US stock market rally
Worried President Trump gets overconfident in the robust economy and markets...
- "U.S. economic and equity market resilience despite tariffs will embolden the President on all geopolitical fronts -- autos, Nafta and particularly Iran -- and thus risk a major miscalculation from sanctions that are tough to calibrate"
JPM say there is a growing potential for a "Phase III" of the U.S.-China trade war next year
- "For U.S. equities, 25% tariffs on all imports from China could take $8 off consensus 2019 EPS projections of $179 and reduce next year's EPS growth from 10% to 5% year-on-year … "Even with a forward multiple of 17, an EPS downgrade this large would end the U.S. stock rally unless some other offset materialized."
Here is the link, three is more detail there than this summary
