Futures price out Oct hike and push the rest back too
A bad report,? Yessiree Bob. The end of the world? Certainly not
An Oct hike has all been priced out from October now, according to the futures market. The chances of an Dec hike have fallen to 30% from 44%. January 2016 was a hot favourite for a hike but that's now been priced to March
As for the numbers today, that's two big misses in a row and bad revisions. That strikes down the one off factor
So why shouldn't we panic?
I spouted on about the strength in the jobs market in my preview and like everything, nothing lasts forever. That goes for trends. There's no signs that the jobs market is going backwards, it's just running out of strength. We've seen that in the data regarding employment. The UK is a perfect example of a strong run petering out. Our positive is that wages are still rising even as the drop in the claimant count has stopped.
For the US, wages are still weak and that's the big issue here
If we start seeing negative payrolls then that's the time to panic. Until then we may just be seeing some steam coming out of this 5 year run
The dollar has got hammered and rightly so but the important moves come next. Is the market going to have a fit over the Fed or will the dip buyers come rushing in once again on the back of all the latest hawkish Fed speakers?
For me the levels need watching. Wait for the second wind and trade the levels that hold
