TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.

September industrial output, a coincident indicator of the economy,
is forecast to post a third straight month-to-month fall due mainly to
slumping automobile output.

Economists warn that output is expected to lose traction in the
face of slower global demand and due to an end to government subsidies
for buying low-emission vehicles, which had supported factory production
as well as retail sales until a few months ago.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, output of
transportation vehicles including automobiles is projected to show a
sharp 11.6% fall in September, which would be a fifth straight
month-on-month drop after -0.7% in August.

If economists’ outlook is met, output for the July-September
quarter will mark a 4.9% q/q fall, a second consecutive quarterly drop,
after -2.0% in Q2 and +1.3% in Q1. That will indicate that Q3 GDP, due
out on Nov. 12, will post the first q/q contraction in five quarters.

Personal consumption and retail sales will continue show y/y gains,
but the pace of their increases are expected to have slowed from the
previous month as the government finished accepting applications for
subsidies for buying greener cars on Sept. 21.

Automobile sales in September fell 8.1%, the first year-no-year
fall in 13 months, according to the Japan Auto Dealers Association.

Meanwhile, the recent month-to-month improvement in the labor
market is forecast to mark time, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.2%
in September, unchanged from August, when it fell from 4.3% in July.

Looking at the longer-term trend, the focus is on whether job
creation will lead to a rise in payrolls compared with year-earlier
levels.

The unadjusted number of employed people marked a ninth-straight
y/y fall in August but the pace of decline decelerated further to -20,000
from -90,000 in July.

Monday, Oct. 29, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases September retail sales.

Forecast: +0.5% y/y in September, a second straight monthly rise
after +1.7% in August and -0.7% in July.

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Monday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the unemployment rate and
the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare releases the ratio of job
offers to job seekers, both for September.

Forecast: Unemployment 4.2%, unchanged from August; the job offers
to seeker index 0.83 (83 job offers for every 100 people looking for
work), also unchanged from the previous month.

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Monday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases September household
spending.

Forecast: +0.5% y/y in real terms, an eighth straight monthly rise
after +1.8% in August.

Tuesday, Oct. 31, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Monday): The Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases September industrial output.

Forecast: -3.4% m/m, which would be a third straight monthly fall
after -1.6% in August and -1.0% in July and weaker than METI’s forecast
for -2.9%.

Wednesday, Oct. 31, 1400 JST (0500 GMT): The Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism releases September housing starts.

Forecast: +16.7% y/y, compared with a 10.8% drop in the same month
2011 and marking the first y/y gain in four months after -5.5% in
August; A seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 879,000 units, down
from 888,000 in August.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4823 **

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