— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese industrial production is expected to post
the first month-on-month rise in two months, up 2.7% in December, after
-2.7% in November and +2.2% in October, according to the median forecast
of analysts surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will release the data
at 0850 JST on Tuesday, Jan. 31 (2350 GMT Monday).

The median forecast is weaker than a 4.8% rise projected in METI’s
survey conducted last month. With a 2.7% rebound in December, output in
October-December would post a 0.8% q/q fall, marking the first drop in
two quarters after +4.3% in Q3 and -4.0% in Q2.

Output of automobiles and electronics will show a rise in December
after a sharp drop in November, when supply chain disruptions in
flood-hit Thailand lingered, said Hidenobu Tokuda, economist at Mizuho
Research Institute.

Some data released recently indicate that December output will
improve from November.

Production by Japan’s top three carmakers in the domestic market
showed on-year gains in December, data released on Friday showed.

Toyota Motor said its December domestic output rose 16.7% y/y,
revving up from +5.1% in November, while Nissan Motor’s domestic output
rose 24.6%, little changed from +25.1% in the previous month.

Honda Motor’s output was up 10.8%, rebounding from -37.8% in
November.

These figures are more or less in line with the recent forecast by
the METI that output of transportation vehicles (mainly automobiles)
will rise 12.7% on the month in December after falling 10.0% in
November.

The Bank of Japan’s real export index rose a seasonally adjusted
1.1% on the month in December to 116.2 (100 for the 2005 base year),
posting the first gain in three months after falling 2.7% in November.

The BOJ also said in its monthly report for January that production
is expected to remain “more or less flat” in both the final quarter of
2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

Naoki Minegishi, economist at Shinkin Central Bank, said, “Output
is expected to rise modestly, led by strong demand for reconstruction of
disaster-hit areas and a recovery in the U.S. economy, although some
negative factors, such as the strong yen and the European economic
slowdown, remain.”

Meanwhile, Takehiro Sato, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG,
warned, “There is a risk that the Japanese economy will enter a mild
recession in the middle of 2012, depending on developments in the
European debt crisis.”

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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