— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a trade deficit
worth Y150.5 billion in December, marking the third consecutive
shortfall after deficits of Y687.6 billion in November and Y281.8
billion in October, according to the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Market News International.
The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Wednesday, Jan. 25 (2350 GMT Tuesday).
In December, imports are forecast to have posted a 24th
year-on-year rise, up 7.8% vs +11.4% in November, on fossil fuel
purchases for thermal power plants to offset the loss of electricity
generation capacity caused by the shutdown of many of Japan’s 54 nuclear
reactors.
Meanwhile, exports are projected to have fallen 8.0% for a third
consecutive y/y drop after -4.5% in November, due to lower shipments of
semiconductors, visual equipment (digital cameras) as well as iron and
steel products.
Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset
Management, said December exports are seen falling from a year earlier
on the global economic slowdown and the recent disruption of supply
chains caused by the major flooding in Thailand last year.
For the whole of 2011, the trade balance is expected to show a
deficit worth around Y2.4 trillion, showing the first shortfall since
1980, when the aftermath of the second oil crisis pushed up import costs
sharply, resulting in a trade deficit worth Y2.6 trillion.
Looking ahead, Taro Saito, senior economist at NLI Research
Institute, forecast that Japan’s trade deficit will widen further from
January onward, and thus that the trade balance in fiscal 2011 will also
post a deficit.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
