— See Separate Table For Details of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese housing starts are expected to have risen
7.2% on year in February, marking the ninth consecutive monthly y/y
increase, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by
Market News International.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism will
release the data at 1400 JST (0500 GMT) on Thursday, March 31.
Housing starts rose 2.7% on year in January, 7.5% in December, 6.8%
in November and 6.4% in October.
On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, housing starts appeared
to have totaled 849,000 units in February, up slightly from 847,000 in
January.
Some data released recently show housing starts are expected to
continue improving.
The ratio of new condominiums which was signed for purchasing to
that of new condominiums supplied stood at 84.8% in February, staying
above 70% for 14 straight months. Figures above 70% are widely seen as
indicating steady demand.
Construction of condominiums rose 31.1% y/y in January, posting the
eighth consecutive monthly y/y increase, according to the ministry.
Housing starts fell to a recent bottom of 775,000 units in fiscal
2009.
Looking ahead, Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central
Bank, said, “Housing starts will drop temporarily, hit by the negative
impact of the March 11 earthquake, but demand for rebuilding homes in
the quake-hit zone will emerge clearly in the second half of fiscal
2011.”
After the Great Hanshin Earthquake hit western Japanese port city
of Kobe on Jan. 17, 1995, housing investment, as measured in GDP data,
slumped by 2.2% q/q in Q1 of calendar 1995, -3.6% in Q2 and -3.4% in Q3.
But housing investment rebounded afterward, up 2.8% in Q4 of 1995,
+5.3% in Q1 of 1996 and +5.5% in Q2.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
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