— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts
TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted the biggest monthly
trade deficit on record in January, with the gap expected to have
ballooned out to Y1.440 trillion, according to the median forecast of
economists surveyed by Market News International.
If confirmed when the Ministry of Finance announces the data on
Monday at 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday), it would have surpassed the
previous record of Y967.9 billion recorded in January 2009 and be the
largest since monthly records began in January 1979.
Japan’s trade balance was in deficit for the three months through
December, when it stood at Y205.6 billion.
In January, imports are forecast to have posted a 25th year-on-year
rise, up 9.2% y/y vs +8.1% in December on the back of liquefied natural
gas and coal purchases for thermal power plants to offset the loss of
electricity generation capacity caused by the shutdown of many of
Japan’s 54 nuclear reactors.
Meanwhile, exports are projected to have fallen 9.5%, marking a
fourth consecutive y/y drop after -8.0% in December, due to lower
shipments of iron and steel products, semiconductors and plastic
products.
Looking ahead, Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central
Bank, said, “Exports will move toward recovery from now on” as auto
exports to the U.S. pick up, and as drags from supply-chain disruptions
caused by flooding in Thailand ease.
Taro Saito, senior economist at NLI Research Institute, said, “It
is highly likely” that the current account balance for January, which is
due out on Mar. 8, will record a deficit, due to the anticipated large
trade deficit.
The current account balance was in Y132.7 billion deficit in
January 2009 in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
