–Indications Point to Big Gain For March
By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index jumped 4 points in
the March 27 period to 63.8, a plus 50-reading reflecting year-on-year
growth and indicating a big gain for March retail sales, according to
Market News International’s weekly survey.
The period’s reading is the best in the 5 years of this sample’s
data. The prior record was 61.8 set in October 2006.
Total year-on-year sales in the sample are +4.3% with same-store
sales at +2.3%. Income is +28%. Sample size in the period is 167 chains
consisting of 141,300 retail locations.
Both autos and gasoline look to be powerful pluses for March.
Indications for the motor vehicle component point to a mid-single digit
month-to-month gain while gasoline, benefiting from a combination of
rising demand along with rising prices, point to a high-single digit
gain.
Reports of gains outside of autos and gasoline are broad based from
weak to strong chains and span across categories, signaling wide uplift
for the nation’s retail sector.
Data in this sample are pointing so far to a 0.5% month-to-month
rise for the ex-auto ex-gas category, which would be the third monthly
gain in a row and the seventh out of the last eight.
There is a caveat: Easter, whether adjusted for or not, can pose a
deceptively significant distortion for month-to-month readings in the
retail sector. This year’s early Easter pulled a significant amount of
sales into March at April’s expense, a factor that should hold back
conclusions on the strength of the sector until next month’s numbers are
in.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
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