By Mark Pender

NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index jumped nearly four
points in the Dec. 4 period to 64.2, reflecting rising mid-single digit
on-year growth yet pointing to mixed November-to-October comparisons,
according to the results of Market News International’s weekly survey.

Total sales rose one percentage point in the period to an on-year
+5.0% while same-store sales jumped 1.6 percentage points to +4.0%.

MNI’s indications point to a +0.7% print for November retail sales,
data to be released a week from Tuesday. Ex-auto, indications point to
+0.8%.

Unit vehicle sales show little change in November as do indications
on used-car sales and auto-part sales, yet the motor vehicles component
looks to get a lift from a favorable month-to-month seasonal adjustment.

Gasoline demand fell in the month, a dip that is significantly
offset by a rise in price and a very favorable seasonal adjustment.

The ex-auto ex-gas component, based on MNI’s sample, looks to show
no change in November. On-year unadjusted growth in Commerce Department
was 3.5% in October, a level that looks to move up to the 5.0% to 6.0%
area.

Yet the gain may not be enough to offset comparatively tough
November seasonal adjustments. The ex-auto ex-gas reading has shown
three months of solid adjusted gains.

Promotional talk is very heavy right now in the U.S. retail sector
and may be bleeding into business assessments, a factor that may be
giving a lift to MNI’s diffusion index which is sitting at a new record
in nearly six years of data.

Sales readings are less robust, trending at three-year highs.
Income is very soft, at an on-year 6%. Distribution for income shows 35%
of the sample posting significant declines, perhaps a factor behind last
week’s decline in November retailer payrolls.

MNI’s sample in the latest period numbers 204 chains representing
136,700 individual retail locations.

Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.

** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **

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