Moody's ratings with analysis on Japan's economy and China tariffs

  • Japanese corporate earnings growth to decelerate in 2019
  • Direct macro impact of a hike in US tariffs on Chinese imports will be manageable, with Japan's auto sector most exposed to trade frictions
  • Projecting GDP growth of 0.8% for Japan in 2019, while EBITDA of rated Japanese companies will grow 1%-3%, slower than expected pace for 2018
  • High oil prices, tightening financial conditions in US, Europe to pressure economic activity in emerging markets, which will lower demand for Japanese exports