Bloomberg with a run down on the latest Moody's global macro outlook:
- Sees Russia GDP contracting by about 3% in 2015 & GDP growth zero in 2016
- Says Greek exit would halt euro area's recovery
- Sees Brazil GDP falling by around 2% in 2015, growth around zero in 2016, doesn't see Brazil GDP rising for another few quarters. See sharper recession in Brazil on Petrobras, tightening
- Revises India GDP growth view down to about 7%, GDP rising by 7.5% in 2016
- Sth Korea GDP growth around 2.5% in 2015, 3% in 2016
- Indonesia GDP growth below 5% this year and next
- See Australia GDP growth 2% this year, around 2.3% in '16
- Sees 2016 France, Italy GDP growth just above or around 1%
- Revises Spain 2015 gdp growth view up to 3%
- Sees Japan GDP growth 1% in 2015, 1.5% in 2016
- Sees UK GDP growth 2.7% in 2015, 2.4% in 2016
- Sees G20 GDP growth avg 3%/yr 2015-19
- Sees US consumer price inflation toward 2% by end 2016
- Maintains euro area GDP growth view around 1.5% 2015, 2016
- China GDP growth view unchanged at 6.8% 2015, 6.5% in 2016 ... sees China GDP growth falling toward 6% subsequent yrs
- Sees US GDP growth 2.8% in 2016
- Says it has revised 2015 US GDP growth view down to 2.4%
- Maintains G20 gdp growth forecast 2.7% 2015, about 3% 2016
Moody's not looking for fast growth at any time soon
- They say the world economy is being held back by the 2008 crisis's lingering drag on productivity growth, China's slowdown, unfavorable demographic trends and slowing gains from trade
- Report cites a big, sustained drop in Chinese asset prices or a Greek exit from the euro as risks for the world economy
- "The recovery in the U.S. and to a lesser extent, the euro area and Japan, will be offset by the ongoing slowdown in China," low growth or a contraction in Latin America and a stabilization rather than a quick rebound in Russia
Expect the Federal Reserve will start raising rates this year but at a slower pace than in the last tightening cycle
Said the range and size of measures by the Chinese government to support growth have been greater than expected, underscoring the economy's weakness. The recent depreciation of the yuan "so far will not have a significant impact" on growth in the world's second-biggest economy, yet it has "added concerns about what it may portend" for the nation's expansion
Expects oil prices to remain "broadly unchanged" from current levels in the second half of this year before rising slowly starting in 2016.