The ANZ Truckometer is a measure of economic activity using real-time traffic data from around New Zealand

Heavy index is +1.6% m/m

  • prior -1%, revised from -1.1%

Key points from ANZ (bolding is mine):

  • The rebound is welcome after a series of declines
  • But it's still down 1. 0 % in the June quarter, which implies a weak - even negative - Q2 GDP growth print is a real possibility
  • A loss of momentum is apparent
  • The ANZ Light Traffic Index leads GDP by six months. It rose 0.9% in June (sa) , also unwinding its May fall. It is up just 0.1% in the last three months versus the three months previous (sa) , also suggesting a flattening out in the economy
  • While the rebound in our traffic indexes in June is encouraging , the Heavy Traffic Index, which has the strongest correlation to GDP, is nonetheless suggesting the economy has slowed markedly
  • The rebound in the Heavy Traffic Index is tepid considering five months of declines prior
  • We expect a further cut in the Official Cash Rate this month