By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Next week will feature mostly second tier
releases, with the exception of inflation and trade data, as well as the
minutes of last month’s meeting of the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open
Market Committee.

After the June 19-20 FOMC meeting, in which a second “twist”
operation was undertaken, the minutes may not hold much of market value.
The move was deemed a disappointment by many economists and, by the
harshest critics, as a move to appear responsive to the recent slow-down
in the recovery without appearing too aggressive in light of the tightly
contested U.S. presidential race.

As always, however, the minutes could hold some indication of the
Fed’s next move, or at the very least another peek into the evolution of
their communications strategy.

The minutes of the FOMC’s June meeting will be released Wednesday
at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Initial jobless claims will either make or break what could be an
emerging trend, as the latest report showed an unexpected dip in
claimants. The figure can be more erratic than usual around this time of
year due to seasonal closings of automobile manufacturing plants.

Initial claims will be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. JOLTs job
openings data will also be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Inflation data for the week include the June Import Price Index, to
be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the June Producer Price Index,
to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Both releases are expected to
show a continued unwinding of gas prices, as waning global demand pushes
prices lower.

Consumer confidence data over the week include the preliminary July
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and also the June
IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. Consumer confidence has held steady
despite the considerably rocky outlook for the economy, with jobs growth
and the broader situation in Europe showing cause for concern.

The IBD/TIPP economic optimism index will be released Tuesday at
10:00 a.m. ET and the University of Michigan survey will be released
Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET. The National Federation of Independent
Businesses’ June small business optimism index will also be released
Tuesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

The May trade balance report, to be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.
ET, is expected to show a narrowing in the deficit to its lowest in
three months. The previous report showed a widening off a strong
increase in imports, though exports still made the biggest gain in eight
months. The report, if nothing else, will be worth watching for its
sizable impact on second quarter GDP.

Other releases over the week include May consumer credit Monday at
3:00 p.m. ET, May wholesale inventories Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the
June U.S. Treasury budget statement Thursday at 2:00 p.m. ET, the June
employment trends index Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the Mortgage
Bankers Association mortgage applications survey Wednesday at 7:00 a.m.
ET.

Federal Reserve speakers for the week are listed below:

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will be speaking at the Sasin
Bangkok Forum in Thailand on “A Perspective on the Future of Monetary
Policy and the Implications for Asia,” at 01:00 a.m. ET.

Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will be speaking at the same
event as part of a panel discussion entitled “Financial Crises and the
Future of Global and Asian Banking.”

San Francisco Federal Reserve president John Williams will speak on
the economic outlook in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho Monday at 11:55 a.m. ET. He
will speak again Thursday in Portland, Oregon at 3:40 p.m. ET.

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard will speak on the
U.S. economy and the world environment in London Tuesday at 6:05 a.m.
ET.

Atlanta Federal Reserve president Dennis Lockhart will speak the
economy in Jackson, Mississippi Friday in 1:20 p.m. ET.

–Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News in Washington

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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