Goldman Sachs on the November nonfarm payroll

  • Forecast nonfarm payroll growth at +200k in November
  • Goldman Sachs were previously forecasting +180k, citing a flow of stronger data so far this week (especially ADP)
  • GS also cite positive weather effects and "possible residual seasonality"
  • Forecast the U3 unemployment rate to 4.8%
  • Forecast average hourly earnings +0.1% on the month (a lot lower than the +0.4% in October) - GS cite "negative calendar effects" (forecast for y/y is at +2.7%)

Barclays:

  • Forecast the headline at +175K
  • Barclays add they see +165K from the private sector (citing service sector jobs)
  • Barclay economists expect the Fri 8:30am ET November nonfarm employment "to rise by Say they are confident that "labor demand remains solid"
  • They note risk to the upside for their forecast, citing large decline in survey week claims

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The report will be released Friday morning in the US (0130GMT)

  • Consensus is +170,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November (October was +161K)
  • Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%