I’m not sure that there is anything more miserable than a table of FX traders who between them haven’t made a dime for the last 5 months. It’s also obvious to see why; if you’re a bear in a bullish market then you’ll do well to break even. All four of our lunch party have been bearish AUD for most of the year. We all made a killing in April/May when the AUD/JPY fell heavily but the pickings have been slim since.
The general opinion on our table was that the AUD is overvalued but headed higher as is the CHF. We also seemed to agree that the USD is losing its reserve status by stealth although it’s not immediately clear what the alternative is, if any.
At least cable is 30 pips higher since I went out so that will lift the doom-and-gloom mood momentarily at least.
