High estimate compared to Atlanta Fed

The NY Fed's Nowcast tracker of GDP growth now sees 4Q growth at 4.0%. That is up from 3.9% last week.

The contributors over the last week include:

  • export price index
  • import price index
  • CPI
  • CPI final demand
  • Data revisions

Negatives as per their model include:

  • capacity utilization
  • industrial production
  • retail sales and food services
  • CPI less food and energy
  • jolts job openings

The number is much higher than the Atlanta Fed estimate of 3.3% released yesterday. Goldman Sachs is even lower at 2.5%.

Which estimate do you expect President Trump to follow?