The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists.

Consensus estimates:

  • 2021/22 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 5.0% previously)
  • 2022/23 GDP forecast to 4.5% (from 3.7%)

Says NZIER:

  • The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces economic activity for the coming year.

The inflation outlook has been revised higher for the coming years.

  • acute labour shortages and COVID -related supply chain disruptions drive up cost pressures further
  • Solid demand has made it easier for businesses to pass these costs onto customers by raising prices.
  • expectations are for these inflation pressures to persist over the coming year
  • before moderating towards the inflation target mid-point of 2 percent in the following year

NZIER report is gated, but there is a helpful summary provided here.