NZ economists downgrade near term growth forecasts, see CPI rising

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists. 

Consensus estimates:
  • 2021/22 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 5.0% previously)
  • 2022/23 GDP forecast to 4.5% (from 3.7%)
Says NZIER:
  • The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces economic activity for the coming year. 
The inflation outlook has been revised higher for the coming years. 
  • acute labour shortages and COVID -related supply chain disruptions drive up cost pressures further  
  • Solid demand has made it easier for businesses to pass these costs onto customers by raising prices. 
  • expectations are for these inflation pressures to persist over the coming year
  • before moderating towards the inflation target mid-point of 2 percent in the following year
NZIER report is gated, but there is a helpful summary provided here. 
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