NZ economists downgrade near term growth forecasts, see CPI rising
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists.
- 2021/22 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 5.0% previously)
- 2022/23 GDP forecast to 4.5% (from 3.7%)
- The latest community outbreak of COVID-19 is likely to have driven these revisions, as the recent lockdown reduces economic activity for the coming year.
The inflation outlook has been revised higher for the coming years.
- acute labour shortages and COVID -related supply chain disruptions drive up cost pressures further
- Solid demand has made it easier for businesses to pass these costs onto customers by raising prices.
- expectations are for these inflation pressures to persist over the coming year
- before moderating towards the inflation target mid-point of 2 percent in the following year
NZIER report is gated, but there is a helpful summary provided here.