- Sees slower growth in major advanced economies in the first half of 2014 than second half of 2013
- Sees Japan GDP growing at 4.8% in Q1 then 2.9% in Q2
- US GDP +1.7% in Q1, 3.1% Q2
- UK 3.3% Q1 & Q2
- Germany 3.7% & 2.5%
- France 0.7% & 1.0%
- Italy 0.7% & 0.1%
- G7 2.2% & 2.0%
- ECB and BOJ should consider adding monetary stimulus (I would assume more in the case of Japan)
- Sees growing vulnerability of China’s financial system, needs to restrain credit growth
- Fed tapering should proceed cautiously
- EU inflation will stay low for extended period
- Risk of emerging market turmoil remains
These are interim forecasts from the OECD and they point to a good start to the year followed by a slow down into the second quarter.