Reuters poll of 70 economists

25% chance of no deal Brexit they say

  • has been between 20 and 30 percent since Reuters began asking in July 2017

On the Bank of England:

  • 25bp hike seen in April 2019
  • another in early 2020

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The background to this (in brief)

  • March 29 2019 is the date of separation of the UK from the EU
  • Britain's land border with Ireland is a key sticking point in negotiations
  • Apart from no deal, options include a UK/EU FTA, or trade continuing under WTO rules, or the UK staying in sort of EU trade area and therefore with access to the single market still. The combination and permutations of these get complex outside this in brief summary