By Kasra Kangarloo
WASHINGTON (MNI) – Markets will be eyeing Thursday’s U.S. initial
jobless claims release by the Labor Department especially closely this
week, given the relative drought of U.S. data and the rather
disappointing non-farm payrolls data released last week Friday.
The median expectation in a Market News International survey of
economists is for initial claims to come in at at 465,000 for the July 3
week, just a slight improvement from the previous week’s 472,000 level.
This would put the 4-week moving average at 468,000, making it the
sixth straight week above the 460,000 mark. The headline figure has
remained stubbornly near and around 450,000 since January, and has not
showed any signs of making further progress anytime soon.
Looking at monthly averages, January posted an average of 476,000
initial claims, February 467,000, and March posted 448,000. Since March,
however, the monthly average has steadily risen, coming in at 466,500
for June.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc., notes
that the headline figure could see a significant dip on account of
General Motor’s decision to postpone their usual season shutdown for
retooling.
Continuing claims, meanwhile, are also expected to dip slightly
from 4.616 million to 4.6 million.
Also of note, the Labor Department analyst stated after last week’s
release that seasonal factors have consistently undershot actual claims
figures, and will be revised slightly upwards for future releases.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]
