China economic growth data for the July - September quarter

Q3 GDP: 6.8% y/y

  • expected +6.8% y/y
  • prior was +6.9% y/y

Note - the New York Times reported the result a few minutes ago: China Q3 GDP leak: 6.8% y/y

And ... 1.7% q/q

  • expected 1.7% q/q, prior 1.8%, revised from 1.7% q/q

Meanwhile the National Congress continues. Leadership there would have to be happy with these numbers, yeah?

The 6.8% is well ahead of the government target (of around 6.5% for the full year). This will be a boost for President Xi Jinping' at the Communist party congress. Last year's growth was 6.7%, so the economy is on track for a stronger result this year (we await Q4, of course, to be sure).

China's economy is benefitting from significant monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2016, which is still impacting. Going forward there are risks from deleveraging, efforts to tame house price growth, continued capacity cuts.

Looking ahead too, Xi's speech on Wednesday did not mention a growth target - which may well indicate leadership will be comfortable with slower growth next year as they further implement structural reform.