The November data was a huge beat:
But, perhaps not all that it seems .... here is a brief commentary via Westpac analysis:
November Australian retail sales ... well in excess of consensus expectations
Household goods category surge 4.5% and the 'other retailing' category lift 2.2%.
- Together these categories make up roughly a third of total retail sales but they accounted for 90% of November's increase.
Overall, the result reflects a strong consumer response to emerging sales events, namely the Black Friday sales
- These relatively new events in Australia may be having a behavioural effect on the way consumers shop, postponing purchases in the lead up to expected discount intervals, and are yet to be fully reflected in seasonal adjustments to the data.
Fundamentals for the consumer are still subdued
- with weak household income growth a constraint on spending
But with the arrival of Amazon a key factor in the upcoming December release, there will likely continue to be somewhat higher volatility in sales data in the near term.
(bolding mine)
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Also, response from Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist at AMP Capital. Shane Oliver:
- Surprisingly strong given retailer comments
- Could be online and iPhones
- Still need to see stronger wages to be sustained
- Regardless, consumer spending is on track for a strong Dec qtr GDP contribution.
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The Australian dollar is consolidating its gain ahead of and around 0.7880 - there is some work to do here but short term charts suggest there is room to run on the topside
