Reuters poll of economists on Brexit and GBP questions

  • Eu UK free trade agreement is most likely outcome of Brexit talks
  • Chance of disorderly Brexit holds steady at 25%
  • Bank of England to raise bank rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% in Q2 2019 (same as November poll)
  • UK economy to expand 1.5% in 2019; 2020 (unchanged from November poll)
  • Only one of 77 economists polled expects change in UK bank rate from 0.75% on December 20
  • Sterling would gain 3.5% if Brexit deal is passed by parliament; lose 2.75% if rejected