The latest poll puts Hollande at 53% versus 47% for Sarkozy. The caveat is that 22% declined to say who they would vote for. Intrade has Sarkozy at 11% with betting sites offering slightly better odds.
The market is focused on the ECB and non-farm payrolls but Sunday’s election’s in Greece and France will be the drivers early next week. If Sarkozy somehow manages an upset, the euro would rally on Monday. Even if Hollande wins, it will come down to what he says afterwards. If he tones down his anti-Germany rhetoric, it will mitigate euro declines.
Overall, the risk-reward may be skewed toward buying the euro late in the week, especially if Sarkozy can inch higher in the polls.