Société Générale Cross Asset Research note with seven key calls for the new year
I've pulled out their main FX call, which is for the "Fall in US dollar to resume in 2018"
SG cite:
- The tax cuts enacted by the US Congress are unlikely to provide significant support for the USD
- The Fed should tighten only very gradually, 10y bond yields should remain capped by strong demand for Treasuries and low inflation, and valuations show that the currency is in expensive territory
And note:
- Risks: Fed accelerates the pace of tightening
SG say on trade implementation:
- Long EUR versus USD
- Falling correlation between USD/JPY and (rising) Topix
- Long CAD & NOK versus USD
