LONDON (MNI) – Analysts are united in the belief the Bank of
England Monetary Policy Committee will not extend quantitative easing
this month, with most expecting no change in policy until another Stg50
billion of QE is sanctioned at the November meeting.

The extension of QE in November is not viewed as a certainty. Of
the 29 economists who gave a forecast for November, 19 expected more
QE in November while 10 did not, with the median forecast for a Stg50
billion increase.

QE remains the MPC’s favoured stimulus tool. Most analysts expect
Bank Rate to be left on hold at 0.5% this year, with only five of the 27
surveyed predicting a 25 basis point cut.

The table below shows analysts’ forecasts:

Level BOE Level BOE
QE Bank QE Bank
Sep Rate Nov Rate
stg Sep stg Nov
bln % bln %
————————————————————————
Median 375 0.5 425 0.5
Mean 375 0.5 408 0.5
High 375 0.5 450 0.5
Low 375 0.5 375 0.25
————————————————————————
Number Responses 31 27 29 27
————————————————————————
4Cast 31-Aug 375 n/a 375 n/a
ABN Amro 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
Barclays Capital 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.25
Berenberg 31-Aug 375 n/a 375 n/a
BNP Paribas 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.25
BoA-ML 31-Aug 375 0.5 n/a 0.5
Capital Economics 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.25
CEBR 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
Citi 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
Commerzbank 31-Aug 375 0.5 n/a 0.5
Daiwa 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
Danske 31-Aug 375 0.5 375 0.5
Deutsche 03-Sep 375 0.5 375 0.5
HSBC 31-Aug 375 0.5 375 0.5
IHS Global Insight 15-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
ING 31-Aug 375 0.5 450 0.5
Investec 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
Jeffries 31-Aug 375 n/a 425 n/a
JP Morgan 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
Lloyds 31-Aug 375 0.5 425 0.5
Monument 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
Natixis 31-Aug 375 n/a 375 n/a
Nomura 31-Aug 375 0.5 400 0.5
Rabobank 03-Sep 375 0.5 375 0.5
RBC 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
RBS 03-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
SEB 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.5
Soc. Generale 05-Sep 375 0.5 425 0.25
Standard Chartered 31-Aug 375 0.5 375 0.5
UBS 31-Aug 375 0.5 375 0.25
Westpac 31-Aug 375 0.5 375 0.5
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–London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$,MTABLE]