Update from TD on their view of the Brexit trade talks:
- Say the probability of a no deal result has dropped, now around 20%-25% (down from 40%)
- The bank does not rule out a 'no deal' but say such a result would be an 'accident'
The implications for GBP:
- Cable should finish 2021 at 1.35
- should naturally benefit as the final uncertainties are lifted
- but there are limits, because the market will eventually turn its attention to some of the other difficulties the UK economy now faces
