As you are all no doubt sick of hearing, I’m very bullish on this pair and my reasoning is in part fundamental and in part to do with the current price level. I won’t go into all that again this morning but a look at the technical picture certainly shows some potentially bullish signs but the downtrend is still in control so there’s some work ahead.
In an ideal bullish technical situation we would see both short-term MAs cross over the 100-day MA and then also cross over the 200-day MA, which is close to recent daily highs at 134.25. After some consolidation, the next target would be the major down trendline which lies somewhere around 140 depending on how you draw it. If that level goes, then I believe a major reversal to be underway.
The short-term charts are showing bullish characteristics in that the first 61.8% retracement at 129.30 held almost to the pip and there is now double-bottom at that level with a neckline around 131.75 and that’s the first support level. From a measured-move perspective, there looks to be potential for a move to 137.00 in this phase. That’s my non-objective reading of the situation at least.
