WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the July IBD/TIPP
Consumer Optimism report released Tuesday:
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index decreased 1.5 points, or 3.2%,
in July posting 44.7 vs. 46.2 in June. This month’s reading puts the
index 3.2 points below its 12-month average of 47.9 and 0.3 points above
its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the
recession, and 6.2 points below its all-time average of 50.9.
Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate
pessimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of
foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the
University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the
national poll of 852 adults from July 6 to July 11. The margin of error
is +/-3.3 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, two
of which declined in June.
* The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel
about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, fell 3.2 points,
or 7.0%, to 42.8. When compared to December 2007, the index shows a
gain of 10.7 points.
* The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel
about their own finances in the next six months, declined 1.3 points, or
2.5%, to reach 50.9.
* Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP
measure of views on how government economic policies are working, gained
0.1 points, or 0.2%, to reach 40.5.
“Consumer confidence is sliding because of the persisting job
situation. Fully 29% of households say that at least one member is
seeking full-time employment,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a
unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD’s polling partner.
“Many Americans remain troubled at the failure of the economy to
respond to more than $2 trillion in various stimulus, bailout and Fed
programs,” said Terry Jones, associate editor of Investor’s Business
Daily. “They keep looking for clear signs of a strong rebound, but just
aren’t seeing it.”
The Breakdown
This month, three of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks
were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. The highest index scores
were for Democrats (59.4), 18 to 24 year olds (59.3), and Black/Hispanic
Americans (57.8).
Nineteen groups declined on the index, while two groups advanced.
On the Economic Outlook component, three of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. All but one group declined on
the index. The highest index scores were for 18 to 24 year olds (59.4),
Democrats (58.4), and Black/Hispanic Americans (56.7).
On the Personal Financial component, 13 of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. Six groups advanced on the index
while fifteen groups declined.
On the Federal Policies component, three of the 21 demographic
groups tracked were above 50. Ten groups advanced on the index, while
eleven groups declined.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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