WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the commentary from the
ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot released Tuesday:

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs (ICSC-GS) chain store sales index for the
week ending April 10 rose by 0.1%–which extended the week-over-week
improvement to four consecutive weeks. Although the seasonally-adjusted
year-over-year pace moderated from the prior week’s pace, it remained at
a hearty 4%. The post-Easter week–as is usual–was negatively impacted
by the inclusion of Easter Sunday during the reporting period this year
compared with a week leading up to Easter last year. However, as is
typical, the ICSC-GS statistic adjusts for this calendar noise.”
Ironically, for the latest week, there appears to be more of a
year-over-year falloff in discount-store customer traffic than at
apparel-specialty stores, according to the ICSC-GS weekly
channel-checking survey. This may be due to the lingering warm weather,
which helped to soften the post-Easter seasonal drop in demand at
apparel stores. Weather Trends International (WTI) reported that
national temperatures, over the last week, were a hefty 6.8F warmer
than last year and 4.6F above its long-term average. WTI noted that
average temperatures across the nation were “April started where March
left off with the warmest start to the month in 8 years along with
another 1,300+ record high temperatures across the country last week.”

March 2010 U.S. comparable-store store sales rose by an
Easter-calendar-inflated 9.0% on a year-over-year basis based on a tally
of 31 retail chains compiled by the International Council of Shopping
Centers. With about 4-5 percentage points of March’s monthly sales lift
due to the calendar shift (Easter fell on April 4, 2010 vs. April 12,
2009), the April ‘echo’ will depress store sales dramatically. The
1993/1994 calendar was similar to this year (Easter was April 3, 1994
vs. April 11, 1993) and in March 1994 sales soared by a incredible 10.3%
followed by a 0.3% gain in April of that year. ICSC Research expects
April sales for the industry to be flat to down about 3%. However, the
two-month (March-April) average year-over-year pace of industry sales is
likely to be around a very healthy 4%.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MAUDT$,MAUDS$,M$U$$]