WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the September
IBD/TIPP Consumer Optimism report released Tuesday:
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved by 6.2 points, or
13.6%, in September, posting 51.8 vs. 45.6 in August. The index is 5.4
points above its 12-month average of 46.4, 7.4 points above its reading
of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession,
and 2.0 points above its all-time average of 49.8.
Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate
pessimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of
foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the
University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the
national poll of 871 adults from September 4 to September 9. The margin
of error is +/-3.4 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, all
of which improved in September.
– The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel
about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, gained 10.7
points, or 24.0%, to 55.2. The sub-index was 32.1 when the economy
entered the last recession in December 2007.
– The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel
about their own finances in the next six months, improved 3.0 points, or
5.4%, to reach 58.5.
– Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP
measure of views on how government economic policies are working rose
4.9 points, or 13.4%, to reach 41.6.
“Confidence showed an unusual jump despite high gasoline prices and
persisting high unemployment,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a
unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD’s polling partner.
“Democrats’ upbeat sentiment after the convention and recent stock
market gains contribute to the optimism. Still, according to our
survey, two-thirds think that high gasoline prices are really hurting
them financially and 26% of households have at least one member of their
household unemployed and looking for employment.”
“The post-convention confidence bounce among Democrats is
noteworthy,” said Terry Jones, associate editor of Investor’s Business
Daily. “But, based on recent trends, strong improvements in jobs and
incomes aren’t likely anytime soon, and with the looming debt crisis,
that’s all likely to weigh on confidence as the election approaches.”
The Breakdown
This month, 15 of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP tracks
were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. All 21 groups increased on
the index.
On the Economic Outlook component, 19 of the 21 groups that
IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory. All 21 groups improved
this month.
On the Personal Financial component, 20 of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. Nineteen groups improved on the
component and two declined.
On the Federal Policies component, two of the 21 demographic groups
tracked were above 50. Twenty groups advanced on the component and one
declined.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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